Premier League 2016/2017 xG Overperformers: Clinical Finishers on Unsustainable Form

In the 2016/2017 Premier League, a handful of teams scored far more often than their expected goals suggested they “should” have, producing a profile of low xG but high conversion that screamed overperformance. xG models for that season, alongside public discussions of goals versus expected goals, show that some sides regularly converted half-chances and difficult…

Premier League

Analysing Over/Under 2.5 Goals in the 2024/25 Premier League Using Real Data

The 2.5-goal line works as a rough dividing line between low-scoring and open matches, and the 2024/25 Premier League season produced enough goals to make that line highly active rather than marginal. With almost three goals per game on average, the league environment itself pushed many fixtures into the “goal-heavy” category, but team-specific patterns still…

Premier League